JUST A BIG MISUNDERSTANDING? BIAS AND BAYESIAN AFFECTIVE POLARIZATION

I present a model of affective polarization—growth in hostility over time between two parties—via quasi-Bayesian inference. In the model, two agents repeatedly choose actions. Each choice is based on a balance of concerns for private interests and the social good. More weight is put on private interests when an agent's character is intrinsically more self-serving and when the other agent is believed to be more self-serving. Each agent Bayesian updates about the other's character, and dislikes the other more when she is perceived as more self-serving. I characterize the effects on growth in dislike of three biases: a prior bias against the other agent's character, the false consensus bias, and limited strategic thinking. Prior bias against the other's character remains constant or declines over time, and actions do not diverge. The other two biases cause actions to become more extreme over time and repeatedly be “worse” than expected, causing mutual growth in dislike, that is, affective polarization. The magnitude of dislike can become arbitrarily large—even when both players are arbitrarily “good” (unselfish). The results imply that seemingly irrelevant cognitive biases can be an important cause of the devolution of relationships, in politics and beyond, and that subtlety and unawareness of bias can be key factors driving the degree of polarization.     

Modeling and Extrapolating Wheat Producer Support Using Income and Other Factors

Using wheat market support data from 55 countries for 1961–2011 from the World Bank Agricultural Distortion database, we develop a fixed effect model that shows a more complicated, nonlinear relationship between income and wheat support and its components than previously realised. We find that income generally has a greater effect on border market price support than on domestic price support. Moreover, the difference between these types of support is greater for net importers than for net exporters and has increased with the URAA or WTO accession. Holding other variables constant, the wheat support level of China, driven mainly by border market price support, is projected to rise with future income growth. Meanwhile, Japan is projected to maintain its high level of support, while the US and EU are projected to maintain their lower levels of support. These results are relevant in the context of multilateral trade negotiations, arguing against a narrow focus on past or current policy profiles and for long‐run analyses that might mistakenly rest on the inconsistent assumptions of constant agricultural policies against the backdrop of rising incomes.     

Holocaust concentration camp memorial sites: an exploratory study into expected emotional response

This study explored Dutch people's expected intensity of emotional responses of a potential visit to a concentration camp memorial site in the Netherlands. A total of 1050 online panel members participated in a questionnaire that contained a 33-item emotion scale. Results reveal that individuals with a closeness to the Holocaust expect to feel most emotions more intensely, specifically emotions that are traditionally considered ‘positive’, such as pride, love, joy, inspiration, excitement and affection. Overall, respondents expect to feel disgust, shock, compassion and sadness the strongest. Those who look from the viewpoint of the offenders mainly expect to feel emotions that are traditionally considered ‘negative’, whereas those who took the point of view of the victims also expect a more ‘positive’ emotional reaction to the visit. Managerial implications address aspects of education, storytelling and authenticity.     

DIMENSIONALITY AND DISAGREEMENT: ASYMPTOTIC BELIEF DIVERGENCE IN RESPONSE TO COMMON INFORMATION

We provide a model of boundedly rational, multidimensional learning and characterize when beliefs will converge to the truth. Agents maintain beliefs as marginal probabilities instead of joint probabilities, and agents' information is of lower dimension than the model. As a result, for some observations, agents may face an identification problem affecting the role of data in inference. Beliefs converge to the truth when these observations are rare, but beliefs diverge when observations presenting an identification problem are frequent. Robustly, two agents with differing priors who observe identical, unambiguous information may disagree forever, with stronger disagreement the more information received.     

Local Content Requirements Versus Tariff Equivalents: How We Measure Matters

This article develops a mechanism to measure the impact of local content requirements as quantitative restrictions. We compare effects of the novel quantitative approach to the effects of a tariff equivalent, which is more traditionally used to analyse these types of policies. Local content requirements increase output and value added in the affected sector, but at the expense of other sectors, leading to declines in GDP and trade across the economy. Comparing the two modelling approaches, the differences in outcomes are shown to be significant.     

Foreign entry,quality, and cultural distance: product-level evidence from US movie exports

This paper investigates the effect of quality on foreign entry using data on international movie exports and direct and revealed measures of movie quality. Strict quality sorting is predicted by a model of firm heterogeneity. An alternative model is random entry, in which entry decisions are independent of the movie’s quality. I develop a discrete choice model that allows for both of these extremes as special cases, and use graphical techniques and simulations to compare their predictions to the data. I then use regression analysis to estimate the effect of quality on the propensity to enter foreign markets. A one-standard-deviation increase in quality increases the probability of entry by 25–50 %. Systematic differences in taste for different genre types are used to estimate a measure of cultural distance between countries. Movies in “culturally dependent” genres are less likely to enter foreign markets and their probability of entry is less sensitive to quality. The cultural distance measure enters a gravity equation of US bilateral trade significantly.     

Readability of accountants’ communications with small business—Some Australian evidence

This paper explores the readability of a new and non-corporate narrative area, accountants’ communications with small business. The distinctive motivations, agendas and interests of small business managers are considered. The findings are informed by rationales from Shearer's (2002) thesis on the influence of neoclassical economics on accounting discourse. The study finds low readability accentuated by potentially low reader interest with accounting documents composed according to conventional accounting's rules and statutory requirements. Higher readability and document content which informs small business managers’ interests is evident when accountants are not compelled to author documents with reference to these professional rules and legislation.     

Identifying and Developing Measures of Information Technology Ethical Work Climates

A model of information technology (IT) ethical work climates is presented. Using these ethical work climates and data collected from a national mail survey of Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) members, empirical measures were developed and evaluated. A mailing of 2446 questionnaires was sent to ACM members and 136 usable responses were returned (5.6%). Using these data, an exploratory factor analysis was performed using principle components analysis to identify the IT ethical work climates from the data. Six of these work climates were identified as predicted by the model. Two ethical work climates that were combinations of the proposed climates were also identified.From the results of the exploratory factor analysis, a confirmatory factor analysis was performed using Calis in PC SAS version 8. The purpose of this analysis was to evaluate the overall fit of these measures to the data and evaluate the psychometric properties of the measures. The fit of the IT ethical work climates model was acceptable. The psychometric properties of these measures were good. Based on these results, conclusions, limitations of the study, and directions for future research are proposed.     

Can Commercialization Improve the Performance of Stock Exchanges Even without Corporatization?

We examine the performance of mutual, demutualized, and publicly listed exchanges and find evidence of improved performance along the exchange governance continuum, with publicly traded exchanges exhibiting better operating performance than demutualized exchanges. However, our robustness test, focusing on the corporatized exchanges that have gone through the three phases of the governance structure, shows that the listed exchanges do not exhibit evidence of incremental gains in efficiency and profitability beyond what they achieved at the demutualization phase. We conclude that commercialization provides sufficient freedom for exchanges to exploit monopoly rents before going public, while corporatization brings about proper valuation of the exchanges’ franchise.